{"id":6564,"date":"2024-04-14T13:29:56","date_gmt":"2024-04-14T17:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/?p=6564"},"modified":"2024-04-14T13:29:56","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T17:29:56","slug":"retour-vers-la-croissance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2024\/04\/14\/retour-vers-la-croissance\/","title":{"rendered":"Retour vers la croissance !"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Dominique Jacquet<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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La trajectoire boursi\u00e8re de META (Facebook) ne manque pas de rebondissements\u2026 Apr\u00e8s une IPO plut\u00f4t d\u00e9sastreuse, le cours avait connu une croissance largement sup\u00e9rieure au Nasdaq pendant 9 ans avant de s\u2019effondrer en 2022, perdant les trois-quarts de sa valeur entre ao\u00fbt 2021 et octobre 2022, puis de conna\u00eetre une remont\u00e9e spectaculaire, revenant \u00e0 ses plus hauts au moment de la publication des comptes d\u00e9but f\u00e9vrier 2024.<\/p>\n

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Si l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2022 \u00e9tait p\u00e9nalis\u00e9e par un questionnement sur la capacit\u00e9 de croissance de la firme, les r\u00e9sultats de 2023, trimestre apr\u00e8s trimestre, ont montr\u00e9 que META conservait des options de croissance significatives. Le nombre d\u2019utilisateurs stagne clairement en Am\u00e9rique du Nord et en Europe, mais l\u2019ARPU (Average Revenue Per User<\/em> \u2013 Revenu Moyen Par Utilisateur) a repris sa progression apr\u00e8s avoir stagn\u00e9 ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement baiss\u00e9 en 2022\u00a0: pour l\u2019Am\u00e9rique du Nord, de $60 en 2021 \u00e0 $59 en 2022, mais $68 en 2023. L\u2019Asie et le Reste du Monde accueille les plus gros bataillons d\u2019utilisateurs avec, au total, 2,4 milliards d\u2019utilisateurs mensuels, en progression d\u2019environ 100 millions d\u2019utilisateurs par rapport \u00e0 2022. Certes, l\u2019ARPU est largement inf\u00e9rieur avec une moyenne de $5 par utilisateur, mais en croissance de pratiquement $1 par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente et avec de belles perspectives de croissance. Comme l\u2019entreprise a focalis\u00e9 l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2023 sur la productivit\u00e9 (r\u00e9duction de 22% du personnel), augmentant, entre autres, de 2,5% la marge brute et gagnant 4% sur les co\u00fbts commerciaux, le r\u00e9sultat d\u2019exploitation a augment\u00e9 de 10% et repr\u00e9sente 35% des revenus. Le ROCE a suivi, passant de 26% \u00e0 37% et le cours de l\u2019action a augment\u00e9 de 25% en une s\u00e9ance\u00a0!<\/p>\n

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Comme la tr\u00e9sorerie g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par l\u2019exploitation l\u2019emporte largement depuis plusieurs ann\u00e9es sur les investissements (Capex et acquisitions), META a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 restituer le cash aux actionnaires d\u00e8s 2017 au travers de rachat d\u2019actions avec un pic \u00e0 44,5 milliards de dollars en 2021. Pr\u00e8s de 20 milliards en 2023 et l\u2019autorisation d\u2019acheter \u00e0 nouveau pour plus de 80 milliards de dollars d\u2019actions de la firme. Concr\u00e8tement, l\u2019entreprise dispose encore de plus de 65 milliards en banque avec une dette financi\u00e8re inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 20 milliards.<\/p>\n

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Les rachats d\u2019actions massifs de 2021 n\u2019avaient pas emp\u00each\u00e9 le cours de s\u2019effondrer en 2022. En effet, cette op\u00e9ration financi\u00e8re peut \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9e par les investisseurs comme un signal de sous-\u00e9valuation de la firme (signal positif) ou, au contraire, l\u2019aveu de l\u2019absence d\u2019opportunit\u00e9s de croissance (signal n\u00e9gatif). La seconde interpr\u00e9tation l\u2019avait emport\u00e9.<\/p>\n

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Or, en annon\u00e7ant les r\u00e9sultats de 2023, META a r\u00e9it\u00e9r\u00e9 son objectif de rachat d\u2019actions, mais a ajout\u00e9 une nouvelle tr\u00e8s importante\u00a0: pour la premi\u00e8re fois de son existence, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 va verser un dividende de $0,5 par trimestre, soit $2 par an. Au niveau de la tr\u00e9sorerie, l\u2019impact est limit\u00e9. Avec 2,2 milliards d\u2019actions en circulation, le dividende repr\u00e9sente une sortie de fonds de 4,4 milliards de dollars, bien inf\u00e9rieure aux montants investis dans les rachats d\u2019actions. Par contre, la nature m\u00eame du versement d\u2019un dividende a un impact sur le signal envoy\u00e9 au march\u00e9. Le rachat d\u2019actions est une op\u00e9ration qui peut \u00eatre modul\u00e9e ou interrompue \u00e0 tout instant, ce qui lui conf\u00e8re une caract\u00e9ristique de non-pr\u00e9dictibilit\u00e9. A l\u2019oppos\u00e9, un dividende repr\u00e9sente une annonce de flux futurs qui, sauf accident, vont cro\u00eetre, ann\u00e9e apr\u00e8s ann\u00e9e. Pour un fonds de pension, META n’est plus une firme qui retourne sa performance en r\u00e9duisant son nombre d\u2019actionnaires, c\u2019est un actif financier g\u00e9n\u00e9rateur de flux entrants pr\u00e9dictibles qui peut ais\u00e9ment constituer une sorte de \u00ab\u00a0fonds de portefeuille\u00a0\u00bb \u00e0 dividende s\u00e9curis\u00e9, comme l\u2019\u00e9taient \u00e0 un certaine \u00e9poque les op\u00e9rateurs de t\u00e9l\u00e9communications. Le niveau modeste du dividende permet de croire qu\u2019il ne peut qu\u2019augmenter au vu des performances de la firme. Par contre, il est clair que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui initient une distribution de leur r\u00e9sultat net envoient aux investisseurs un message qui s\u2019apparente \u00e0 la fin de la croissance, ce qui pourrait \u00eatre interpr\u00e9t\u00e9 de mani\u00e8re n\u00e9gative.<\/p>\n

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Lorsque Microsoft a annonc\u00e9 en 2004 que la firme allait verser un dividende exceptionnel ($36 milliards\u2026), racheter ses actions et verser un dividende r\u00e9current, le march\u00e9 avait bl\u00eami, concluant \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019\u00e2ge d\u2019or et de la croissance (pr\u00e9vision qui s\u2019est av\u00e9r\u00e9e un peu rapide pour une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 qui vient de devenir la plus grosse capitalisation boursi\u00e8re mondiale\u2026). Par contre, lorsque Apple avait annonc\u00e9 qu\u2019apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 le dividende avait \u00e9t\u00e9 supprim\u00e9, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 allait distribuer \u00e0 nouveau un dividende \u00e0 ses actionnaires, mais d\u2019un montant tr\u00e8s symbolique, le march\u00e9 n\u2019avait pas boug\u00e9 car les flux mobilis\u00e9s \u00e9taient n\u00e9gligeables au regard de la tr\u00e9sorerie et du cash-flow disponible de la firme.<\/p>\n

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En r\u00e9servant un accueil chaleureux aux annonces de META, y compris le dividende de $0,5 par trimestre, le march\u00e9 a donn\u00e9 plus d\u2019importance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019ARPU et du nombre d\u2019utilisateurs dans les pays \u00e9mergents qu\u2019au modeste retour distributif aux actionnaires. Cependant, il sera int\u00e9ressant d\u2019observer l\u2019impact futur (\u00e9ventuel) de cette nouvelle politique de distribution sur le statut boursier de META en dressant la liste des investisseurs, de leur nature et de leur participation respective.<\/p>\n

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Pour conclure, rappelons la conclusion de l\u2019article majeur de Fisher Black (\u00ab\u00a0The Dividend Puzzle<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, Journal of Portfolio Management, 1976) qui posait la question\u00a0 existentielle\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0What should the corporation do about dividend policy? We don\u2019t know<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb. Belle modestie\u00a0de la part d\u2019un esprit si brillant !<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Dominique Jacquet   La trajectoire boursi\u00e8re de META (Facebook) ne manque pas de rebondissements\u2026 Apr\u00e8s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6562,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRetour vers la croissance ! - CDI Alumni E-Cademy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2024\/04\/14\/retour-vers-la-croissance\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retour vers la croissance ! 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