{"id":6546,"date":"2024-04-14T12:46:32","date_gmt":"2024-04-14T16:46:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/?p=6546"},"modified":"2024-04-14T12:46:32","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T16:46:32","slug":"le-liege-ne-protege-pas-toujours-du-derapage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2024\/04\/14\/le-liege-ne-protege-pas-toujours-du-derapage\/","title":{"rendered":"Le li\u00e8ge ne prot\u00e8ge pas toujours du d\u00e9rapage\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Dominique Jacquet<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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En battant de nombreux records au box-office et en apparaissant aux pieds de l\u2019h\u00e9ro\u00efne, le film Barbie a fortement influenc\u00e9 le march\u00e9 boursier et certainement assur\u00e9 une promotion efficace \u00e0 la mise en bourse des chaussures Birkenstock.<\/p>\n

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Le caract\u00e8re \u00ab\u00a0glamour\u00a0\u00bb des dites chaussures a peut-\u00eatre \u00e9chapp\u00e9 \u00e0 certains, mais tous les investisseurs ont constat\u00e9 que le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait, en d\u00e9finitive, mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment sensible \u00e0 la fameuse sandale.<\/p>\n

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Une valorisation \u00e0 hauteur de 10 milliards de dollars avait \u00e9t\u00e9, un temps, \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par Bloomberg, puis l\u2019enthousiasme est redescendu \u00e0 8 milliards.<\/p>\n

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Enfin, le 10 octobre, le prospectus d\u00e9finitif indique un prix offert de $46, ce qui valorise les 188 millions d\u2019actions de la firme \u00e0 environ 8,5 milliards de dollars US, soit 10 milliards USD en ajoutant 1,5 milliards de dette nette (hors leasing).<\/p>\n

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A l\u2019ouverture, le 11, le titre s\u2019\u00e9change \u00e0 $41 pour cl\u00f4turer \u00e0 $40,2. Deux jours plus tard, le cours est \u00e9gal \u00e0 $36,4 et la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re est descendue \u00e0 6,8 milliards de dollars.<\/p>\n

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Cela repr\u00e9sente, tout de m\u00eame, une belle plus-value (40%) pour les propri\u00e9taires de la firme, LVMH et la famille de Bernard Arnault via L Catterton (fonds de private equity<\/em>), qui \u00e9taient entr\u00e9s au capital en 2021 au prix de 4,85 milliards de dollars.<\/p>\n

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\u00ab\u00a0Comparaison n\u2019est pas raison\u00a0\u00bb, mais on peut chercher \u00e0 \u00e9tablir des corr\u00e9lations avec des ic\u00f4nes de la chaussure comme Crocs. Au cours des 12 derniers mois, le cours est pass\u00e9 de $78 \u00e0 $83, soit un peu de plus de 6% de progression. La soci\u00e9t\u00e9 est cot\u00e9e sur le Nasdaq, comme toutes les firmes de haute technologie(\u2026), dont l\u2019indice a progress\u00e9 de plus de 30% sur la p\u00e9riode. De plus, le cours de Crocs avait atteint un plus haut sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 $150 en avril et, donc, a perdu pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 de sa valeur en 6 mois. Conjoncture boursi\u00e8re difficile pour la chaussure \u00ab\u00a0tendance\u00a0\u00bb\u2026<\/p>\n

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Alors, Birkenstock entre en bourse avec des m\u00e9triques volontaristes.<\/p>\n

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Certes, le chiffre d\u2019affaires des 9 derniers mois est en hausse de 21% par rapport \u00e0 la p\u00e9riode pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, avec une marge brute en hausse de 2%, mais des d\u00e9penses de marketing, elles aussi, en hausse de 2%.<\/p>\n

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Suivant la communication de l\u2019entreprise (prospectus d\u2019\u00e9mission), l\u2019Adjusted EBITDA repr\u00e9sente 35% des revenus. L\u2019entreprise n\u2019est pas une grande consommatrice de \u00ab\u00a0capex\u00a0\u00bb, les investissements industriels ne repr\u00e9sentant qu\u2019un cinqui\u00e8me des d\u00e9penses de ventes et marketing. L\u2019EBITDA \u00ab\u00a0ajust\u00e9\u00a0\u00bb et le taux de croissance constituent, donc, deux bonnes m\u00e9triques pour \u00e9valuer l\u2019entreprise.<\/p>\n

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M\u00eame \u00e0 $36,4 USD l\u2019action, la valeur d\u2019entreprise est valoris\u00e9e \u00e0 6 ann\u00e9es de revenus et 17 ann\u00e9es d\u2019EBITDA (ajust\u00e9).<\/p>\n

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Cela ne se justifie que dans le cas o\u00f9 le positionnement de la marque et l\u2019engouement des clients sont p\u00e9rennes. Or, Crocs, dans les ann\u00e9es subprime<\/em>, avait vu son cours de bourse \u00e0 $1,2 par action, devenant un penny stock<\/em>.<\/p>\n

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Le risque est, donc, \u00e9vident, que la marque Birkenstock subisse \u00e9ventuellement des al\u00e9as commerciaux non n\u00e9gligeables. Il est d\u2019ailleurs int\u00e9ressant de constater que la firme n\u2019a pas rejoint les Maisons de LVMH. Du point de vue coh\u00e9rence de marques, il \u00e9tait peut-\u00eatre difficile de faire se c\u00f4toyer Dior et Birkenstock, mais surtout la long\u00e9vit\u00e9 du Clos des Lambrays (le Grand Cru 2018 est vendu 460\u20ac la bouteille, soit 2,5 paires de Sabots Bryson\u2026), joyau de la C\u00f4te de Nuit cr\u00e9\u00e9 en 1365, est probablement plus assur\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

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La Roche Tarp\u00e9ienne \u00e9tant proche du Capitole dans les secteurs volatils, il est pr\u00e9f\u00e9rable de vendre \u00ab\u00a0haut\u00a0\u00bb pendant que le client y croit encore.<\/p>\n

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La marque est tr\u00e8s \u00ab\u00a0tendance\u00a0\u00bb, mais, comme le dit lui-m\u00eame Bernard Arnault, seul un poisson mort navigue dans le sens du courant.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Dominique Jacquet     En battant de nombreux records au box-office et en apparaissant aux…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6544,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe li\u00e8ge ne prot\u00e8ge pas toujours du d\u00e9rapage\u2026 - CDI Alumni E-Cademy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2024\/04\/14\/le-liege-ne-protege-pas-toujours-du-derapage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le li\u00e8ge ne prot\u00e8ge pas toujours du d\u00e9rapage\u2026 - 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