{"id":6443,"date":"2023-05-18T14:38:23","date_gmt":"2023-05-18T18:38:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/?p=6443"},"modified":"2023-05-18T14:38:23","modified_gmt":"2023-05-18T18:38:23","slug":"danone-la-suite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2023\/05\/18\/danone-la-suite\/","title":{"rendered":"Danone, la suite"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Ivan Cuesta<\/strong><\/h3>\n

(collaboration sp\u00e9ciale)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(Illustration cr\u00e9\u00e9e pour ce blogue avec l’assistance de l’intelligence artificielle, \u00e0 l’aide de Firefly d’Adobe)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En janvier et f\u00e9vrier 2021, Danone a fait face \u00e0 deux attaques d\u2019activistes, Bluebell Capital et Artisan Partners. Les deux fonds sp\u00e9culatifs ont contest\u00e9 la performance financi\u00e8re et la gouvernance de l’entreprise. En cons\u00e9quence, le PDG Emmanuel Faber a \u00e9t\u00e9 limog\u00e9 et le Conseil d’administration a engag\u00e9 un renouvellement complet. Qu’en est-il des performances financi\u00e8res ? Les interventions des activistes ont-ils provoqu\u00e9 un r\u00e9sultat financier positif ?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la question, nous examinerons les KPI financiers, le ROA, le Q de Tobin et les rendements boursiers anormaux, car ils sont les plus utilis\u00e9s par les \u00e9conomistes financiers pour les performances des entreprises concernant les \u00e9v\u00e9nements activistes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rendements anormaux\u00a0:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le rendement anormal est calcul\u00e9 comme suit : Rendement r\u00e9el \u2013 Rendement attendu.<\/p>\n

Le rendement attendu suit le mod\u00e8le d’\u00e9valuation des actifs financiers (MEDAF – CAPM), qui est d\u00e9fini comme suit :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rendement attendu = taux sans risque + b\u00eata x (rendement attendu du march\u00e9 – taux sans risque).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0 Figure 1 : Rendements anormaux de Danone, source Eikon de Thomson Reuters.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dans la figure 1, nous pouvons observer des rendements anormaux positifs \u00e0 court terme, dans les deux \u00e9v\u00e9nements d’activistes, 10 jours et 20 jours apr\u00e8s que Danone a \u00e9t\u00e9 cibl\u00e9. Apr\u00e8s 1 an d’\u00e9v\u00e8nements activistes, l’impact n\u00e9gatif est significatif puisqu’il affiche respectivement -13,66% et -15,11% de rendements anormaux pour les \u00e9v\u00e8nements Bluebell Capital et Artisan Partners. Apr\u00e8s 2 ans, on observe un nouvel impact n\u00e9gatif avec respectivement -21,58% et -23,91%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Si l’on compare avec Nestl\u00e9 (Figure 2), apr\u00e8s son \u00e9v\u00e9nement activiste en 2017, on observe des \u00e9carts importants de rendements anormaux en faveur de Nestl\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 Danone.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Figure 2 : Rendements anormaux de Nestl\u00e9, source Eikon de Thomson Reuters.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La comparaison avec Unilever, avec l’agression de Nelson Peltz en janvier 2022, montre \u00e9galement une bien meilleure performance par rapport \u00e0 Danone pour le rendement anormal sur 1 an (Figure 3).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Force est donc de constater que les manifestations des militants de 2021 n’ont pas cr\u00e9\u00e9 une dynamique positive pour Danone en termes de rendements anormaux, et la comparaison avec des pairs qui ont \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 confront\u00e9s aux activistes met encore plus en \u00e9vidence la mauvaise performance du yaourt fran\u00e7ais.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Figure 3 : Rendement anormaux Unilever, source Eikon de Thomson Reuters.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

ROA\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pour examiner l’effet potentiel sur le ROA, nous avons effectu\u00e9 une analyse pour \u00e9valuer la corr\u00e9lation entre l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement activiste et la performance du ROA. La pond\u00e9ration du pouvoir d’influence de l’activiste a \u00e9t\u00e9 estim\u00e9e entre 0 et 1 sur la p\u00e9riode. La corr\u00e9lation de la figure 4 montre une valeur de (0,62), ce qui d\u00e9montre une corr\u00e9lation n\u00e9gative entre les \u00e9v\u00e9nements des militants et le d\u00e9veloppement du ROA. Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements des militants n’ont pas cr\u00e9\u00e9 de r\u00e9sultat positif en termes de ROA jusqu’\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Figure 4 : Rendement des actifs de Danone, \u00e0 partir des rapports annuels.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00c0 titre de comparaison dans la figure 5, Nestl\u00e9 d\u00e9montre une \u00e9volution positive du ROA avec l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement activiste organis\u00e9 en 2017.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Figure 5 : Rendement des actifs de Nestl\u00e9, \u00e0 partir des rapports annuels.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Quant au rendement anormal, Danone affiche des performances n\u00e9gatives en termes de ROA et la comparaison avec Nestl\u00e9 confirme la tendance.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Q de Tobin<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le Q de Tobin est d\u00e9fini comme la valeur de l’entreprise divis\u00e9e par le capital employ\u00e9. La valeur d’entreprise est la somme de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re et de la dette nette.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Figure 6 : Q de Tobin Danone, extrait des rapports annuels.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conform\u00e9ment au ROA, nous avons appliqu\u00e9 les m\u00eames coefficients de pouvoir d’influence des militants (Figure 5). On peut \u00e9galement observer une corr\u00e9lation n\u00e9gative (-0,45) entre les \u00e9v\u00e9nements des militants et les performances Q de Tobin. Cela signifie que les militants n’ont pas provoqu\u00e9 de r\u00e9sultats positifs pour le d\u00e9veloppement du Q de Tobin.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nous observons un r\u00e9sultat diff\u00e9rent par rapport aux performances de Nestl\u00e9 dans la figure 6. Dans ce cas, une corr\u00e9lation positive existe entre l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement de l’activiste en 2017 et l’\u00e9volution du Q de Tobin.<\/p>\n

Ce dernier KPI et comparaison avec Nestl\u00e9, confirme le fait que malgr\u00e9 la pression des militants de 2021, Danone est constamment sous-performant et que la tendance ne change pas pour autant.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Figure 7 : Q de Tobin Nestl\u00e9, tir\u00e9 des rapports annuels.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Les militants ont-ils fait du bon travail ?<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La r\u00e9putation d’Artisan Partners et de Bluebell Capital est hautement cr\u00e9dible et a fait ses preuves, faisant partie du Top 100 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de gestion d’actifs dans le monde et du Top 25 des investisseurs activistes (Eikon Thomson Reuters). La cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 d’Artisan Partners a m\u00eame \u00e9t\u00e9 renforc\u00e9e par le soutien de la \u00ab laisse dor\u00e9e \u00bb Jan Bennink pour le ciblage activiste de Danone. En termes d’intensit\u00e9, la communication publique tr\u00e8s active des deux activistes demandant des changements drastiques, et la r\u00e9volution de la gouvernance qu’ils ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 obtenir en 3 mois apr\u00e8s l’attaque de Bluebell Capital, ont montr\u00e9 que l’intensit\u00e9 requise pour provoquer des changements \u00e9tait suffisamment \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Par cons\u00e9quent, nous pouvons reconna\u00eetre que les deux \u00e9v\u00e9nements activistes en 2021 \u00e9taient appropri\u00e9s pour induire une dynamique positive en termes de performances financi\u00e8res, mais il n’y a pas eu de r\u00e9sultat positif, tant sur les performances boursi\u00e8res qu’\u00e9conomiques, notamment par rapport \u00e0 Nestl\u00e9 et Unilever.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La probabilit\u00e9 qu’un \u00e9v\u00e9nement activiste provoque des r\u00e9sultats financiers positifs d\u00e9pend de deux param\u00e8tres du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l’activiste\u00a0: la r\u00e9putation de l’activiste et l’intensit\u00e9 de l’attaque. Malgr\u00e9 la pertinence des attaques des militants en 2021 et leurs cons\u00e9quences sur la gouvernance, les performances financi\u00e8res de Danone n’ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la hauteur des attentes en termes d’am\u00e9lioration et de benchmark. On peut alors souscrire \u00e0 l’inutilit\u00e9 du militantisme pour faire de Danone un performeur de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence. Comme l’entreprise a fait face \u00e0 deux autres attaques d’activistes avant 2021, en 2012 et 2017, sans impact financier, nous pouvons concevoir deux sc\u00e9narios futurs pour les mois suivants\u00a0: soit l’entreprise sera \u00e0 nouveau cibl\u00e9e, avec une approche encore plus agressive d’un activiste, ou l’entreprise fera l’objet d’une OPA hostile. Apr\u00e8s 10 ans de sous-performance, il n’y a pas d’autre moyen de voir la lumi\u00e8re sortir du tunnel.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Ivan Cuesta (collaboration sp\u00e9ciale) (Illustration cr\u00e9\u00e9e pour ce blogue avec l’assistance de l’intelligence artificielle, \u00e0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6443","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDanone, la suite - CDI Alumni E-Cademy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2023\/05\/18\/danone-la-suite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Danone, la suite - 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