{"id":5956,"date":"2022-04-03T13:31:06","date_gmt":"2022-04-03T17:31:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/?p=5956"},"modified":"2022-04-03T13:31:06","modified_gmt":"2022-04-03T17:31:06","slug":"unilever-activisme-esg-et-rendements","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2022\/04\/03\/unilever-activisme-esg-et-rendements\/","title":{"rendered":"Unilever : activisme, ESG et rendements"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Ivan Cuesta<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"

\u00a0<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Du fait de leurs faibles performances financi\u00e8res, les grandes firmes de biens de consommation de base sont confront\u00e9es depuis cinq ans \u00e0 l’activisme actionnarial. Nestl\u00e9 et P&G en 2017, Danone en 2017 et 2021, Campbell Soup en 2018 et Unilever en janvier 2022 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 la cible de diff\u00e9rentes attaques d\u2019activistes. Unilever, derni\u00e8re entreprise \u00e0 avoir rejoint le club des cibles, \u00e9tait cens\u00e9e ne plus \u00eatre une proie apr\u00e8s mis en \u0153uvre un “activisme interne” cons\u00e9cutif \u00e0 l’offre de KraftHeinz en 2017. Alors, pourquoi le fonds sp\u00e9culatif activiste Trian Partners est-il entr\u00e9 au capital du producteur de Dove\u00a0?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La litt\u00e9rature acad\u00e9mique identifie le profil des cibles des activistes. Les entreprises cibles pr\u00e9sentent au moins une de ces caract\u00e9ristiques :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rendements totaux pour les actionnaires inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 ceux de leurs pairs \u00e0 court ou \u00e0 long terme ;<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Performances op\u00e9rationnelles inf\u00e9rieures \u00e0 celles de leurs pairs \u00e0 court ou \u00e0 long terme ;<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Probl\u00e8mes d’agence relatifs \u00e0 la gouvernance.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Unilever ne montre pas de probl\u00e8mes de gouvernance \u00e9vidents, alors concentrons-nous sur le rendement des actionnaires et la performance op\u00e9rationnelle.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rendement total pour les actionnaires (TSR)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nous avons retenu la liste suivante d\u2019entreprises comparables : Nestl\u00e9, Reckitt Benckiser, Beiersdorf, Danone et Mondelez.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sur un TSR \u00e0 1 an, on observe une sous-performance<\/strong> significative d’Unilever vis-\u00e0-vis de ses pairs. Sur un TSR \u00e0 3 ans, Unilever fait partie des moins performants avec Danone, Beiersdorf et Reckitt Benckiser. Sur le TSR \u00e0 5 ans, Unilever fait partie des plus performants<\/strong> avec Nestl\u00e9 et Mondelez.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nous pouvons ainsi conclure que m\u00eame si la situation semble satisfaisante \u00e0 long terme, la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 d’Unilever se d\u00e9t\u00e9riore de plus en plus.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Performances op\u00e9rationnelles : Retour sur Actifs (ROA)<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Diff\u00e9rents indicateurs peuvent \u00eatre s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9s pour observer la dynamique des performances d’exploitation. Nous avons s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9 la rentabilit\u00e9 des actifs (ROA) qui est calcul\u00e9e en divisant le r\u00e9sultat net par le total de l\u2019actif.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Concernant le ROA, les performances d’Unilever sont dans le haut du benchmark, ce qui signifie que ce KPI n’a peut-\u00eatre pas \u00e9t\u00e9 un d\u00e9clencheur de l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement activiste de Trian Partners. La performance du ROA peut provenir d’une augmentation constante du r\u00e9sultat net et\/ou de la r\u00e9duction des actifs. Dans ce cas, la performance ROA d’Unilever provient de la croissance continue de son b\u00e9n\u00e9fice net, alors que le total des actifs continue d’augmenter lentement au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, sauf en 2018 apr\u00e8s la cession de l’activit\u00e9 margarine.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lorsqu’une entreprise affiche des rendements d’exploitation satisfaisants et une faible cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 sur le march\u00e9, cela signifie que les investisseurs ne font pas confiance \u00e0 la r\u00e9silience<\/strong> de la performance d’exploitation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On peut mesurer la cr\u00e9ation de valeur relative \u00e0 l’aide d’un indicateur appel\u00e9 Q de Tobin, du nom du c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00e9conomiste, qui se calcule en divisant la Valeur d’Entreprise (EV = capitalisation boursi\u00e8re + dette nette portant int\u00e9r\u00eat) par les capitaux engag\u00e9s (CE).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Les capitaux engag\u00e9s repr\u00e9sentent les fonds investis dans les op\u00e9rations industrielles et commerciales, et EV est la valeur de ces fonds. Si le Q de Tobin est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 1, on observe une cr\u00e9ation de valeur (EV > CE), inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 1, une destruction de valeur.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sans trop entrer dans les d\u00e9tails techniques, les math\u00e9matiques financi\u00e8res fournissent une formule qui calcule le taux de croissance implicite des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponibles (FCF, pour free cash-flows<\/em>) g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9s par l’entreprise en combinant sa performance (ROCE apr\u00e8s imp\u00f4t vs WACC) et son \u00e9valuation par le march\u00e9 (Q de Tobin).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Techniquement, la croissance implicite des free cash-flows (g) est calcul\u00e9e comme suit :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

g =(Q de Tobin x WACC \u2013 ROCE x (1-Tax ratio))\/(Q de Tobin – 1)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Maintenant, on peut tracer sur un graphique l’\u00e9volution de cette croissance implicite au fil des ann\u00e9es :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Croissance implicite des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponibles<\/u><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On observe pour Unilever une baisse constante des attentes des investisseurs quant \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 du management \u00e0 maintenir une croissance positive du free cash-flow. Le bond positif en 2017 \u00e9tait d\u00fb aux cons\u00e9quences de l’offre de KraftHeinz, qui a provoqu\u00e9 un activisme interne chez Unilever. Cet activisme interne a conduit \u00e0 la cession des activit\u00e9s margarine et th\u00e9, \u00e0 des programmes de rachat d’actions, \u00e0 des augmentations de dividendes et \u00e0 des objectifs de performances op\u00e9rationnelles. Mais, malgr\u00e9 l’activisme interne, les investisseurs ne croient plus aux r\u00e9sultats positifs du point de vue du free cash-flow, ce qui place la direction de l’entreprise dans un probl\u00e8me de cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 vis-\u00e0-vis des investisseurs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Paul Polman a \u00e9t\u00e9 PDG d’Unilever de 2009 \u00e0 2019 et est consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un champion de la promotion des actions ESG chez Unilever. L’impact de certaines initiatives de d\u00e9veloppement durable promues par Polman peut \u00eatre remis en question, mais il n’a manifestement pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 convaincre les investisseurs que le niveau actuel de performance op\u00e9rationnelle \u00e9tait durable et r\u00e9silient.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

L’\u00ab activisme interne \u00bb n’\u00e9tait pas la bonne r\u00e9ponse aux investisseurs, tandis que vendre des activit\u00e9s probl\u00e9matiques au capital-investissement, comme l’industrie du th\u00e9, au lieu de r\u00e9soudre leurs probl\u00e8mes de durabilit\u00e9 ne semble pas non plus \u00eatre la bonne d\u00e9cision.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00c9pilogue (?)<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lorsque Trian a investi dans Unilever plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e, l\u2019apparition de l’activiste a cr\u00e9\u00e9 un rendement anormal1<\/a> de 3,83 % pendant les 10 jours suivants l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement et de 6,69 % apr\u00e8s 20 jours. Les investisseurs ont d’abord soutenu l\u2019approche de l\u2019activiste estimant qu’il appartenait ensuite au management de construire un v\u00e9ritable plan de redressement align\u00e9 avec Trian Partners pour rattraper son retard en termes de TSR et de croissance implicite des FCF. Ensuite, tout est redevenu \u00ab normal \u00bb, et les circonstances g\u00e9opolitiques actuelles, faisant chuter les indices boursiers, pourraient remettre encore plus Unilever sur le radar d’\u00e9ventuelles offres hostiles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_______________________<\/p>\n

1<\/a> Pour mesurer le \u00ab rendement anormal \u00bb, vous multipliez le rendement du march\u00e9 boursier sur une p\u00e9riode par le \u00df de l’entreprise et vous obtenez le rendement qu’elle aurait d\u00fb g\u00e9n\u00e9rer \u00ab normalement \u00bb. Lorsque le rendement \u00ab r\u00e9el \u00bb diff\u00e8re du rendement \u00ab normal \u00bb, il y a un rendement anormal qui, lorsque la diff\u00e9rence est positive, traduit la satisfaction des investisseurs (quand il est n\u00e9gatif, d\u00e9ception\u2026). Le \u00df d’Unilever pour le calcul est estim\u00e9 \u00e0 0,45 (notre calcul).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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