{"id":4899,"date":"2021-03-14T17:28:29","date_gmt":"2021-03-14T21:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/?p=4899"},"modified":"2021-03-15T11:44:31","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T15:44:31","slug":"creation-de-valeur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2021\/03\/14\/creation-de-valeur\/","title":{"rendered":"Cr\u00e9ation de valeur…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Dominique Jacquet<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lorsque, le 18 f\u00e9vrier dernier, Carrefour a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 ses comptes annuels 2020, le march\u00e9 a pu constater que l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de la rentabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re, entam\u00e9e en 2018, se poursuivait\u00a0: am\u00e9lioration sensible du r\u00e9sultat d\u2019exploitation et du cash-flow libre, r\u00e9duction de la dette, annonce de la reprise du dividende pay\u00e9 en cash et non en titres.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Un calcul rapide montre que la rentabilit\u00e9 des capitaux engag\u00e9s (le fameux ROCE) d\u00e9passe maintenant 15%, en progression de 3% par rapport \u00e0 2017.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Le cours a tr\u00e8s fortement r\u00e9agi \u00e0 cette annonce en cl\u00f4turant \u00e0 14,57\u20ac, soit une baisse de 4 centimes d\u2019Euro par rapport au jour pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent\u2026 Il \u00e9tait de 16\u20ac environ il y a 3 ans.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La valeur d\u2019entreprise de Carrefour (EV = capitalisation boursi\u00e8re + endettement financier net de tr\u00e9sorerie) se retrouve en d\u00e9finitive identique aux capitaux engag\u00e9s comptables et la firme ne g\u00e9n\u00e8re, ni ne d\u00e9truit de valeur.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Or, un ROCE avant imp\u00f4ts de 15% m\u00e9rite un traitement plus favorable. Le ratio dit Market-To-Book s\u2019obtient en divisant la valeur d\u2019entreprise par les capitaux engag\u00e9s comptables\u00a0: MTB = EV \/ CE. Si le MTB est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 l\u2019unit\u00e9, il y a cr\u00e9ation de valeur, destruction dans le cas contraire.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Voici la corr\u00e9lation entre ROCE et MTB pour Carrefour sur plus de 15 ans.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ce graphe nous rappelle que la cr\u00e9ation de valeur est issue de la performance financi\u00e8re\u00a0!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Or, on montre que ce ratio, en l\u2019absence de croissance, est th\u00e9oriquement \u00e9gal au ratio du ROCE apr\u00e8s imp\u00f4ts divis\u00e9 par le co\u00fbt du capital. Le co\u00fbt du capital de Carrefour est vraisemblablement compris entre 5% et 6% et le groupe m\u00e9riterait donc un MTB de 1,5 ou 2, davantage sous hypoth\u00e8se de croissance\u2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ce d\u00e9calage entre valeur de march\u00e9 et valeur \u00ab\u00a0m\u00e9rit\u00e9e\u00a0\u00bb s\u2019appelle un credibility gap<\/em>, d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9voqu\u00e9 dans ces lignes. Il appara\u00eet lorsqu\u2019une entreprise aborde un virage strat\u00e9gique ou se redresse apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode difficile, ce dernier cas d\u00e9crivant bien la situation de Carrefour.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nous n\u2019avons jamais observ\u00e9 de credibility gap<\/em> se \u00ab\u00a0refermer\u00a0\u00bb en moins de 4 ans, mais il faut parfois plus de temps pour que le march\u00e9 soit convaincu du caract\u00e8re durable du redressement. Or, il n\u2019est apparu qu\u2019il y a 3 ans\u2026 Patience\u00a0?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S\u2019il est une personne qui est d\u00e8s aujourd\u2019hui convaincue du retour \u00e0 la performance durable, c\u2019est bien Alain Bouchard, fondateur et propri\u00e9taire d\u2019Alimentation Couche-Tard, soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Canadienne qui propose le 12 janvier dernier 20\u20ac par action pour prendre le contr\u00f4le de Carrefour. Le cours monte modestement \u00e0 18\u20ac en s\u00e9ance pour redescendre \u00e0 15\u20ac, les autorit\u00e9s fran\u00e7aises s\u2019opposant imm\u00e9diatement au rapprochement.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Cela s\u2019appelle un \u00ab\u00a0prolongement de credibility gap<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb\u2026<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Dominique Jacquet   Lorsque, le 18 f\u00e9vrier dernier, Carrefour a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 ses comptes annuels 2020,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classifiee"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCr\u00e9ation de valeur... - CDI Alumni E-Cademy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cdialumni.ecademydj.com\/fr\/2021\/03\/14\/creation-de-valeur\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cr\u00e9ation de valeur... - 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